Mystery Bridge

< The Fourth Turning >

History repeats itself, as the saying goes.  And if you haven’t heard about The Fourth Turning yet, you surely will, because as of this writing (July 2020) we are smack dab in the middle of it.  The phrase was coined by Neil Howe and William Strauss (now deceased) in a 1997 book of the same name: “The Fourth Turning.”  The authors lay out a theory of generational cycles and historical rhythms that have repeated in American culture since the 1400s.

The theory goes like this: American history has been experienced in patterns, where one era with certain political, cultural and social themes naturally follows another.  The patterns tend to morph, one into the next, as a generation comes of age, puts its mark on the world, and reacts to the happenings and mood of the era.  The same patterns repeat as the oldest generation dies off, and the lessons and nuggets of knowledge it has gleaned become forgotten.  In studying these eras that morph and repeat in theme, the Howe and Strauss laid out an entire concept for historical passings of generations, eras, and public moods which can explain and, in some cases, predict what’s coming next.

In the book, these eras are referred to as saeculums, roughly the span of a human life.  A saeculum lasts 80-100 years.  Within a saeculum, the events of the era unfold and one mood changes into the next, which the authors refer to as a Turning.  These Turnings happen in a certain pattern.  There are four Turnings per saeculum. 

The turnings are: "The High", "The Awakening", "The Unraveling" and "The Crisis.”  During a high, there is a feeling of optimism and hope.  Society is confident about the goals of the country.  There is conformity among the masses.  Our most recent First Turning in the US was the post–World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963.

The second turning is The Awakening.  During this time, the conformity is questioned.  Institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy.  People start to turn their attention away from social discipline in favor of a sense of self-awareness.  Strauss & Howe say the US's most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980.

The third turning is The Unraveling.  Individualism is strong and the mood is cynical.  People want small government and institutions and weakened.  Unravelings follow Awakenings, which cause society to break away from conformity and enjoy selfhood.  During the Unraveling, trust in public and secular institutions disintegrates.  Gradually over these years, the habits, rules and manners of the Awakening are cast away in favor of personal autonomy.  The era often begins with a sunny feeling but ends with a bleak atmosphere.  The most recent Unraveling in the US began in the 1980s and includes the Long Boom and Culture Wars of the 1990s.

Thus begins the fourth turning, a period of crisis lasting roughly 20 years. Institutions are torn down and rebuilt as a response to a threat to the nation. Government authority revives, groups come together in community purpose, and there is a national fear of well-being for every American.  Fourth turnings are when new groundwork is laid down in America’s history, redefining our national identity.  The book “The Fourth Turning” was written in 1997 before this turning had taken place, but in the book they predicted this turning would arise around 2005.

According to the book, here are the past Fourth Turnings as described within their theory.  While most of the theory focuses on America in particular, the historical research incorporates the European timeline leading up to the United States founding.  These are the turnings, as named and described in the book:

Wars of the Roses (1459-1487) 

This was a period of English Civil Wars, years of feuding and skirmishes between the houses of York and Lancaster.  Even after the victory of Edward York, the wars continued for another twenty five years as the crown changed heads and land changed hands over and over, at the expense of the lives of many royal subjects. 

Armada Crisis (1569-1594)

Queen Elizabeth I had built up the royal treasury and renewed interest in arts and culture.  She encouraged trade and commerce. She authorized English trading companies in Africa, Asia, and the Americas.  In 1571 a plot was hatched to overthrow her, leading to a series of wars and battles between Protestant England and the Catholics they saw as their enemies.

Glorious Revolution (1675-1704)

The Glorious Revolution, also called “The Revolution of 1688” occurred between 1688 to 1689 in England. This time it was a plot to overthrow Catholic king James II, who was replaced by his Protestant daughter Mary and her Dutch husband, William of Orange.

American Revolution (1773-1794)

The thirteen original colonies in America fought the British to gain independence.  The war was largely ideological and political, but of course physical as well.  The pinnacle of the war was  in 1781 when American and French forces together captured the British army at Yorktown.  Subsequently, the new “states” ratified a nation-forging Constitution.

Civil War (1860-1865)

Southern states tried to secede and leave the United States.  Again, we have a war fought for ideological and political differences, with incredible bloodshed.  Coming out of this war was the Emancipation Proclamation, the end of legal slavery, and the dawn of a new era for the country.

Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946)

This turning began with the Black Tuesday stock market crash of 1929, subsequent worldwide economic depression and the rise of poverty.  Pearl Harbor was then bombed by the Japanese in 1941, leading the U.S. into about six years of hellish war.  What came out of this turning era was the New Deal revolution, a vast expansion of government, and new sense of community the country didn’t have before.

In an online follow up to the book, Neil Howe postulated that the current fourth turning would be centered on the global financial crisis which started in 2008.  He updated his website to name this turning “The Global Financial Crisis” starting with the 2008 worldwide economic meltdown.  This was before the pandemic.  But as you may have heard because it’s been widely reported, the book gives multiple examples of what the fourth turning of this era might be, and global pandemic is one of them.  In my next article I’ll go into more detail about the book’s predictions for this era’s fourth turning, as well as the parts of a fourth turning.